nos-trum. pronunciation: \nos'-trum\. noun. Etymology: Latin, neuter of noster our, ours.
1. a medicine of secret composition recommended by its preparer but usually without scientific proof of its effectiveness.
2. a usually questionable remedy or scheme.
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Friday, May 1, 2009

NO H1N1 FLU IN TIERRA DEL FUEGO...YET

Data issued by the CDC 40 minutes ago.  Only two more cases confirmed overnight in Texas.  Broadening number of states reporting, but still in very low numbers.   There is a lead time to perform the tests, so what we’re seeing is people who were tested approx three days ago.

 

Isn’t it interesting that California has knocked another case off their list (these are cumulative figures, not daily new ones).  There’s no explanation on the Calif website as to why this is occurring.  They allege that there are another 40 cases that are unconfirmed at this time.  I don’t know whether they are getting preliminary test readings, or they are just guessing from the symptoms, until the final test results come in.  I would be curious to know how many tests they’re doing, and what percent are negative. 

 

No new positives from New York.  I thought that one had real potential to accelerate…and still could, but this is the second day without any real increase.

 

Some of these folks are recovering, but still no increase in deaths.  There could still be some that are hidden by post-mortem testing results that haven’t come in yet, but I would have expected to see at least a few at this point.

 

These numbers WILL continue to climb.  It’s just a matter of whether we reach a threshold of exposure where isolation efforts are overwhelmed, and propagation becomes self-sustaining.  Due to the time delay, we may know that only in retrospect.

 

There are lots of wild rumors floating about.  Don’t let fear take away your common sense.  People with colds, sore throats, and even seasonal rhinitis are flocking to their doctors, even though they know these symptoms are not characteristic, and in the case of allergy, that they’ve had these symptoms every spring in the past.  Use your head.

 

Also, remember that there are always a few cases of the flu around, sometimes of other types.

 

I think by Monday we’ll have a little clearer picture of whether containment and isolation are having an impact…or not.  So much depends on personal behavior (do sick people stay home and isolate themselves?  Do people avoid large gatherings in confined spaces in those areas where a new case has popped up? Are government responses able to get on top of the time delay to isolate the contagion? Etc.  There are always wacko’s who say “I never get the flu”, or those who say, unfortunately, “I can’t afford to miss work.”)

 

Doc D

 

 

 

U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
(As of May 1, 2009, 11:00 AM ET)

States

# of laboratory confirmed cases

Deaths

Arizona

4

 

California

13

 

Colorado

2

 

Delaware

4

 

Illinois

3

 

Indiana

3

 

Kansas

2

 

Kentucky

1

 

Massachusetts

2

 

Michigan

2

 

Minnesota

1

 

Nebraska

1

 

Nevada

1

 

New Jersey

5

 

New York

50

 

Ohio

1

 

South Carolina

16

 

Texas

28

1

Virginia

2

 

TOTAL COUNTS

141 cases

1 death

 

 

 

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